StocktwitsTV

Shay Boloor on AI Bubble or Reality? Markets Are Telling Us Something

The S&P keeps hitting fresh highs while the Nasdaq spins its wheels — and that divergence is sending a message about tech leadership in 2026. Shay Boloor breaks down why the “buy anything tech” playbook is getting stress-tested, why software multiples are in a platform transition, and how the AI theme is shifting toward “winner take all.”
They also dig into: Palantir’s setup and why it may be in a different category than typical app software, whether state-level data center pauses matter for Nvidia and semis (or if demand just reroutes), a full bull case on Jumia after a volatile earnings reaction, a blunt critique of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy and how traders view Strategy as leverage, the “Musk economy” narrative around Tesla, and why Google issuing a 100-year bond is more confidence than stress — plus what it signals about AI infrastructure becoming long-duration buildout.
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Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/
00:00 Seahawks bet + Super Bowl banter00:43 S&P at fresh highs while Nasdaq lags01:10 Since Oct 29, 2025: how many S&P ATHs?01:54 What the divergence is signaling for tech in 202602:29 “Penalty box” for CapEx-heavy AI/software02:55 AI economy: demand vs price action confusion03:03 Retail rotation into old-economy names03:27 Structural unwind and “carnage” in secular growth04:34 Software talk: SNOW, CRM, narrative “vibe shift”05:16 Software is in a platform transition (multiples reset)06:41 AI shifts to “winner take all” leadership question07:42 Palantir as an AI winner — who else joins?08:00 Palantir chart/support and why it’s “one of one”09:38 Data center pause headlines: semis/memory bubble fears?10:35 Local politics vs global data center demand rerouting12:21 Jumia earnings: revenue/GMV up, stock down — bull case13:27 Inflection: falling fulfillment cost, low cash burn, path to profitability15:14 Africa demographics + Starlink connectivity angle16:09 Michael Saylor on Bitcoin: “digital capital” + keeps buying17:12 Critique: Saylor and “poison pill” concern19:00 Strategy as leveraged Bitcoin tool vs long-term investment20:02 Tesla as a call option on the “Musk economy”23:13 Speculation + scrutiny: Musk ecosystem and market attention24:56 Google issues 100-year bond: confidence or top signal?26:32 AI infra is long-duration buildout; cloud reacceleration27:43 Why the bond market can underwrite it (cashflow context)28:06 Wrap-up

Iran and Venezuela Through an Energy Lens: Incentives, Deals, and Mispricing Risk

Welcome back to StocktwitsTV. Host Michele Steele is joined by Cem Karsan for a macro “jam session” that connects January’s market rotation to a much bigger decade-long regime shift.
Cem explains why the first trading day of the year looked like a starting gun, accelerating the move toward what he calls strategic assets in a bifurcated world. In his framework, higher rates and supply constraints create multiple bidders for limited, bottlenecked resources and capabilities, not just commodities, but also areas like chips and defense technology, which can remain convex for a long time.
He then lays out why demand-side economics are reasserting themselves in a populist environment shaped by demographics, affordability pressures, and political incentives. He ties that shift to curve steepening, break-evens, inflation dynamics, and a resurgence in areas like consumer staples and other defensives that lagged previously.
Michele and Cem also discuss geopolitics through an energy lens, focusing on Venezuela and Iran as incentive-based efforts to limit China’s access to oil and redirect flows, and why Cem believes the market may be overpricing the odds of sustained military conflict and higher oil in the near term if a deal emerges. They wrap with what to watch next month, including fiscal and housing policy signals, long-end rates, and how election cycles can matter more during populist periods.
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms and conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/
Chapters and Timestamps
00:00 Chicago setup and “mean tweets” intro01:35 January as signal: as goes January, so goes the year02:32 The “starting gun” feel and accelerated market action03:05 Strategic assets in a bifurcated world: bottlenecks and convexity04:18 Industrial metals, precious metals, lithium and more04:41 Demand-side economics returns: the structural shift05:10 Demographics, inequality, and the old-versus-young framing06:23 Supply-side attempt versus demand-side reality08:03 Distrust, anger, and the populist feedback loop09:06 Curve steepening, break-evens, inflation and defensives ripping10:33 What this implies for the rest of the year12:22 When the US starts to move: competing for hard assets13:06 Fiscal spending into midterms: infrastructure and incentives13:58 Populist periods and election-cycle volatility15:13 Politics matters more in populist times15:39 Noise vs signal: parsing the firehose16:20 Why the cycle intensifies over time17:56 Affordability, household formation, and dissatisfaction19:48 Protectionism and global conflict dynamics22:18 Iran and Venezuela: energy, incentives, and China’s constraints23:19 China’s energy vulnerability and blockade risk25:20 Venezuela and Iran as levers on energy flows27:03 Regional players and shifting Middle East alignment31:12 Higher odds of a deal versus regime change33:28 Market mispricing: conflict and oil risk34:05 Rapid fire: what we may be talking about next month35:29 Housing policy, fiscal velocity, and inflation risk36:05 Long end, refinancing cycle, and liquidity draw36:31 Rough patches and “shooting the generals”37:15 Buckle up: decade-plus regime shift and wrap

Software Slump 2026: Why Jensen Says AI Won’t Replace SaaS

Hey everybody, welcome back to StocktwitsTV. Host Michele Steele is joined by Megan King to break down two huge storylines: the software slump of 2026 and the NFL’s crackdown on prediction market ads ahead of the Super Bowl.
First, Michele tees up Jensen Huang’s argument that the idea of AI “replacing” software is illogical, even as heatmaps show a sea of red across major software names. Megan agrees, saying the current drawdown is driven by uncertainty as investors extrapolate a future where autonomous agents compress seat counts and cap pricing power. Her view is that AI does not eliminate software, it rebundles it, and agents still need systems of record, permissioning layers, compliance logic, and workflow orchestration. She expects pressure to continue through Q1 until the market sees stabilizing core revenue, modest seat compression, and AI revenue that is incremental and margin neutral, with a real inflection point coming from tone shifts and visible revenue proof. Megan adds that incumbents like Microsoft and SAP are positioned to internalize AI value because they control distribution and the data layer, and that patient capital has historically been rewarded when platform incumbents adapt their revenue models.
Then it’s the big game and the investor angle: the NFL bans prediction markets from advertising during the Super Bowl while incumbents like DraftKings and FanDuel remain everywhere. Megan argues the move signals prediction markets are a real threat to traditional sportsbook economics, describing them as more exchange-like with lower fees and more efficient pricing. She says a more analytical, price-sensitive cohort may migrate to prediction markets, driving liquidity and long-term engagement, and that sportsbooks will ultimately need to adopt the model, build it, or acquire it to hedge against the demographic and structural shift.
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/
Chapters
00:00 Software slump of 2026 setup00:00 Jensen Huang: AI won’t replace software01:00 Sea of red in big software: Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe01:13 Overdone fear or fundamental collapse01:27 Megan: AI rebundles software, does not eliminate it02:03 What agents still need: systems of record, compliance, workflow02:48 Bottom call: likely pressure through Q103:05 What the market needs: evidence of AI monetization03:33 Why incumbents can win: data layer and distribution04:18 Patient capital view: 1 to 3 years04:53 Super Bowl setup05:14 NFL bans prediction market ads during the Super Bowl05:50 Why the NFL move matters: economics, not ethics06:37 Prediction markets vs sportsbooks: the cohort shift07:31 Sportsbooks look outdated vs exchange-like markets07:57 Incumbent defense move explained08:15 Robinhood as crossover: stocks plus sports outcomes09:13 DraftKings and Flutter charts: cannibalization fears09:42 M and A question: acquire or build10:07 Megan: sportsbooks will acquire or create prediction markets11:01 Wrap and outro

LendingClub CEO on Blowout Q4: Originations Up 40 Percent, Rebrand, and DebtIQ

All right, StockTwits, we’re here with Scott Sanborn, CEO of LendingClub, the digital marketplace bank focused on helping members lower their cost of debt.
In this interview, StockTwits breaks down LendingClub’s monster fourth quarter with Scott: revenue up 23 percent, originations up 40 percent, and EPS that tripled. Scott explains why the stock’s reaction has sometimes felt confusing, pointing to a change in the company’s accounting program that analysts understood but parts of the buy side did not fully incorporate.
Then we get into what’s next. Scott outlines why LendingClub is rebranding and why now is the right time, emphasizing that the company has grown beyond its original model and now offers award-winning checking, savings, and CD products. He also explains DebtIQ, a new technology being integrated into the mobile app designed to show customers their true credit card rates, quantify savings, and track multiple cards in one place. Scott says LendingClub typically saves customers about 700 basis points versus credit card rates, which he notes are often 22 to 23 percent.
The conversation also covers new verticals such as major purchase financing, partnerships like furniture financing, and a big push into home improvement, plus why the company believes it can deliver originations growth and margin expansion with or without Fed rate cuts. Finally, Scott talks about how LendingClub pays attention to retail shareholders through Q and A tools and community feedback before closing with a Super Bowl pick.
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

PLTR Earnings Shock: No Deceleration, Huge Margins, and Wall Street’s Valuation Fight

Welcome into StocktwitsTV. Host Michele Steele is joined by Shay Boloor to unpack a wild mix of AI, Musk ecosystem headlines, and fintech winners and losers.
First up is Palantir: revenue up, profit up, guidance up, stock up. Shay calls the quarter a credibility moment, pointing to a 2026 guide raised to 61 percent with no deceleration, a commercial engine scaling fast, net dollar retention surging at scale, and an eye-popping operating margin result that he says forces a rethink of how AI application winners get valued. Michele presses on Wall Street skepticism and valuation concerns, and Shay argues that trying to pick a top in Palantir is riskier than respecting the multi-year trend when the company is clearly monetizing AI spend.
Next, they pivot to Elon Musk combining SpaceX and xAI into a 1.25 trillion private empire. Shay explains why he sees strategic logic, not a bailout, and why frontier models ultimately become a layer inside broader ecosystems. They also discuss what Tesla shareholders should make of capital flowing into xAI, and why Shay views Tesla as the physical endpoint of intelligence across robotics, autonomy, and energy.
Finally, it’s fintech. Shay says PayPal has been misrun, squandered first-mover advantages, and proves why “cheap can always get cheaper,” even suggesting a possible Musk buyback as payment rails for the wider ecosystem. They close on Robinhood: aggressive AI tools, prediction markets growth, the super app narrative, and the key risk that still matters most, crypto exposure, even as the company improves product depth and operating leverage.
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms and conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/
Chapters
00:00 Palantir: revenue up, profit up, guidance up, stock up00:12 Alex Karp to retail: doubters were wrong01:06 PLTR credibility moment and fears of 2026 deceleration01:50 61 percent 2026 guide: why it matters02:18 Monetizing AI spend versus selling a promise02:46 Wall Street valuation fight: downside calls and multiple worries03:38 Nvidia déjà vu and the risk of shorting PLTR04:32 Palantir as enterprise operating system and ROI proof05:02 Net dollar retention at scale: why it’s “insane”05:36 Shay: adding and nibbling again06:29 Margin shock: 71 percent operating margin and what it signals07:33 Palantir vs OpenAI: profitable growth versus growth at all costs08:05 Musk merges SpaceX and xAI into 1.25 trillion08:32 Bailout or strategy: Shay’s take09:08 Frontier models as inputs into broader ecosystems10:00 Aligning compute, data, distribution, capital under one roof10:38 Tesla shareholders: xAI funding and the thesis question11:08 Tesla as physical endpoints of intelligence12:03 Why Shay has not added Tesla recently and what would change13:06 The excitement premium of a unified Musk ecosystem14:01 Fintech close: PayPal versus Robinhood14:20 PayPal: “cheap can always get cheaper”15:10 Misrun utility and squandered first-mover moments16:26 Agentic commerce and why others may win17:01 Dividend as defensive signal and buyout theory17:29 Musk buying PayPal back as payment rails18:36 Robinhood: AI tools, prediction markets, super app talk19:23 Product depth improves, but crypto still 40 to 50 percent of revenue20:26 Operating leverage and monetizing engagement21:05 Why volatility may last longer than people expect21:39 Why dips keep getting bought in AI22:00 TSMC demand curve comment and 2020 timeline mention22:18 Copper as the data center commodity play22:51 Super Bowl party, prediction markets, and wrap

Healthcare Gets Smoked: UNH Down 18% on Medicare Proposal — Silver Breaks Records

Welcome into StockTwitsTV — we talk about the market, so you don’t have to. Host Michele Steele is joined by Megan King to break down a week where there’s plenty of green on the board… but a ton of red in healthcare.
They start with UnitedHealthcare (UNH) and a brutal move lower as a U.S. proposal to hold Medicare Advantage payments flat triggers a sector-wide reset. Megan explains why this isn’t just an earnings story: a proposed 0% rate increase vs mid-single-digit expectations forces a reset of multi-year earnings models and shifts Medicare Advantage from a growth engine to a more “regulated utility-like” business with political and margin risk.
Then it’s the shiny stuff: silver posts record-breaking volume, and Megan argues silver is acting as a volatility amplifier—momentum and positioning matter—but the long-term bull case remains intact on constrained supply and rising industrial demand (solar, electrification, jewelry), with a macro message of rising demand for assets that feel “real and tangible.”
They also hit headline risk and AI buildout: Ubiquiti faces geopolitical/compliance optics, while Corning (GLW) rallies after Meta commits up to $6B through 2030 for fiber—proof that AI infrastructure bottlenecks are now “literal, not theoretical,” and that winners won’t just be compute, but the suppliers enabling scale.
Finally, it’s a lightning round and earnings/IPO radar: Redwire and defense spending, quantum getting institutional validation via a university purchase, Boeing optimism and recovery signs, GM raising 2026 guidance despite EV-related losses, UPS shifting to higher value shipments, Union Pacific as a real-economy signal, airlines with thin margins, and celebrity brand IPO momentum with Once Upon a Farm—plus a broader takeaway that the IPO window remains disciplined, prioritizing profitability and defensibility.
00:03 — Welcome in: green market, red healthcare00:21 — Megan’s metals take: “stockpiling” gold & silver (jewelry)00:50 — UNH stream reaction: “$60 down isn’t a dip… it’s a crater”01:11 — Medicare payments flat proposal + sector sympathy selloff01:38 — Do we re-value insurers long-term?02:29 — 0% rate vs expectations: reset of multi-year earnings models02:57 — Buyer at these levels? Why policy risk matters03:31 — Bad timing: UNH guides lower for first time in decades03:56 — Silver record volume: do we see new highs?04:21 — Silver as “volatility amplifier” (momentum/positioning/optics)04:47 — Bull case: constrained supply + industrial demand + macro hedge05:28 — Profit-taking? Why she’s not selling soon (watching closely)06:26 — Ubiquiti headline risk: compliance/geopolitical optics07:36 — Corning + Meta fiber deal: AI infra bottlenecks turn “real”08:41 — AI winners beyond compute: infrastructure suppliers09:02 — Lightning round: Redwire, D-Wave/FAU quantum, robotics + Microsoft, Affirm/Bolt, Reddit09:48 — Reddit drawdown: slowed growth + AI referrals shifting to YouTube10:12 — UK data: Reddit overtakes TikTok in weekly active users12:03 — Redwire: defense spend + funding optionality12:48 — Quantum: institutional validation beyond “lab phase”14:01 — Earnings parade: Boeing + GM winners15:34 — Why markets reward forward visibility16:26 — UPS: yield management over volume growth17:27 — Union Pacific: muted outlook as real-economy signal18:17 — Airlines: American & JetBlue misses + thin margins19:37 — IPO radar: Once Upon a Farm ($764M)21:10 — IPO takeaway: disciplined multiples, profitability/defensibility over hype22:23 — Wrap
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/